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Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Kiko's convective pattern is still poorly organized.  There was
only a burst of convection near the estimated center overnight, and
a new one is in progress. The circulation still consists of a broken
low- and mid-level cloud deck with widely scattered embedded
convection.  Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are
T2.0/30 kt, while the objective estimate is near 40 kt. The initial
intensity remains at 35 kt as a blend of the subjective and
objective estimates.

Kiko is surrounded by dry air which is probably contributing to
the system's continued convective struggles.  Going forward, a low
shear and warm water environment with limited environmental
instability looks to allow a gradual increase in intensity. The new
NHC forecast shows Kiko just shy of hurricane strength in
about 48 hours, which is in good agreement with the trend of the
model consensus.

Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, to the south of a
mid-level ridge which extends along the U.S./Mexico border.  This
motion should continue for the next 3 days, and the track models
are in good agreement on this solution.  After day 3, some
bifurcation of the models remain, though there are more models
supporting a west to northwest track than to the north. The only
substantial change to the previous forecast is a slightly slower
speed in Days 4 and 5, and the forecast will stay closer to the
models that support a continued west-northwest track at long range.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 16.9N 114.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 17.2N 115.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 18.5N 120.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 19.5N 123.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 20.2N 126.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  18/1200Z 21.0N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bann/Jackson/Otto/Blake

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