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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
800 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2019

Satellite images indicate that the well-defined low pressure system
that NHC has been monitoring well south of the Baja California
peninsula has now developed sufficently organized deep convection
to be classified a tropical depression, the twentieth one of the
2019 eastern North Pacific season.  The depression is producing two
areas of thunderstorms, one near and east of the low-level center,
and the other in bands over the northeastern quadrant.  The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt, based on a 2.0 Dvorak classification
from SAB.

The depression has a day or two to strengthen while it remains over
warm waters, in relatively moist conditions, and in a low wind
shear environment.  In about 48 hours, however, a pronounced
increase in southwesterly shear and progressively drier air should
end the opportunity for strengthening and induce a weakening trend.
The cyclone will likely become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days and
dissipate shortly thereafter when it moves into an extremely
hostile upper-level environment.  The NHC intensity forecast lies
near the high end of the guidance and is in best agreement with the
HCCA consensus model.

The depression is moving slowly north-northwestward in the flow on
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge.  A northwestward
to north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster pace should
occur during the next couple of days as the ridge strengthens and
remains in place.  After that time, a faster north-northeastward
motion is expected as a large mid- to upper-level low digs to the
west of the Baja California peninsula.  Once the system becomes
weak and shallow, a turn back to the left seems likely in the
low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast follows the TVCE and HCCA
consensus models and brings the remnants of the depression near the
southern Baja California peninsula in about 4 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 13.0N 108.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 13.6N 108.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 14.7N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 16.0N 110.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 17.4N 110.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 21.1N 109.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 23.2N 109.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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