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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL252020
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020
 
...GAMMA CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 87.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from north of Punta Allen to
Cancun, including Cozumel.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
* North of Punta Allen to Cancun Mexico, including Cozumel
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Punta Allen Mexico
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 87.3 West.  Gamma is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion
should continue at a slower forward speed today.  A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the 
west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday.  On the forecast 
track, the center of Gamma should move inland over the eastern 
Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of 
the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Gamma is likely to be near or at hurricane 
strength when it makes landfall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.  
Some weakening is expected after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.  A station at Cancun, Mexico, reported a sustained 
wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) within the 
past few hours.  A station at Xcaret Park near Playa del Carmen 
recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 
54 mph (87 km/h).
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter 
observations is 983 mb (29.03 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
RAINFALL:  Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with
maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across
northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan.  This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.
 
A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away
from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern
Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz,  with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.  This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.  The storm will also
result in an area of heavy rains to the south that will affect the
Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern
Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua with accumulation of 4-6 inches
and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.
 
Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5
inches is expected over the Cayman Islands.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area during the next few hours.  Tropical storm conditions
are spreading into the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula, and these conditions should spread across
the remainder of the warning area through Sunday.  Tropical Storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later
today and on Sunday.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg
 
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