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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL252020
100 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020
 
...GAMMA MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...20.4N 87.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
* North of Punta Allen to Cancun Mexico, including Cozumel
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Punta Allen Mexico
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 87.6 West.  Gamma is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion
should continue at a slower forward speed today.  A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the
west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Gamma should move farther inland over the 
eastern Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast 
of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow weakening is likely through tonight while the center
moves over land.  Some re-strengthening is expected to begin when
the center moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
RAINFALL:  Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with
maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across
northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan.  This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.
 
A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away
from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern
Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz,  with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.  This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.  The storm will also
result in an area of heavy rains to the south that will affect the
Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern
Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua with accumulation of 4-6 inches
and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.
 
Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5
inches is expected over the Cayman Islands.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions could still occur within the Hurricane
Warning area during the next couple of hours.  Tropical storm
conditions should continue within the Tropical Storm Warning area on
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today, and these conditions
should spread across the remainder of the warning area through
Sunday.  Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical
Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and north of where the center crossed the coast.  Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.  Water levels should begin to subside later today.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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