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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020
 
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DELTA RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 79.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Tulum northward and westward to
Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Artemisa
* Isle of Youth
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Isle of Youth
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 79.4 West. Delta is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the
west-northwest should occur this evening.  A faster northwestward
motion is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass southwest
of the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach the northeastern 
portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday 
afternoon or evening.  Delta is forecast to move into the 
southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and be 
over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Wednesday 
night. 

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 
maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 70 mph (110 
km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional rapid strengthening is 
expected during the next day or so, and Delta is expected 
to be a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA reconnaissance 
aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the
Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to
right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning tonight.  Hurricane conditions are expected within the
hurricane warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night, with
tropical storm conditions beginning late Tuesday.  Hurricane
conditions are expected within a portion of the the Hurricane
Warning area in western Cuba by late Tuesday night, with tropical
storm conditions expected beginning late Tuesday.  Hurricane
conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth beginning Tuesday
afternoon with tropical storm conditions expected by early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba on Tuesday.
 
RAINFALL:  Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan
Peninsula. This rainfall could lead to significant flash floods and
mudslides.
 
Later this week into the weekend, Delta is expected to bring heavy
rainfall across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the
southeastern United States.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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