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Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020
Satellite imagery and overnight scatterometer data indicate that the
low pressure area to the southeast of Tropical Depression Seven-E
has a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection
to be considered a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Depression Eight-E. The initial intensity is
30 kt based on the scatterometer data and a subjective Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB.
The initial motion is 240/6, with the depression being steered by a
portion of the subtropical ridge building between it and Tropical
Depression Seven-E. This motion should persist with some
increase in forward speed for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward
the west as the steering flow becomes more easterly. This should
be followed by a turn toward the west-northwest after 60h. The
track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC
forecast is in the middle of the guidance and close to the various
consensus models.
The cyclone is over warm sea surface temperatures and in a light
shear environment, and these conditions should persist for the next
several days. The intensity guidance calls for steady
strengthening through about 72 h, and the NHC forecast follows this
trend near the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope.
The Rapid Intensification Indices of the SHIPS model suggest about
a 20-25 percent chance of RI during the first 72 h of the
forecast, so it is possible that the cyclone will strengthen more
than currently forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 13.7N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 13.1N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 12.4N 123.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 11.8N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 11.7N 128.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 11.9N 131.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 12.7N 134.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 14.5N 139.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 16.5N 145.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
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