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Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020
The intensity of Douglas has leveled off in the overnight hours
with the eyewall convection weakening, but the eye temperatures
becoming a lot warmer, suggesting that the system has become a
little more steady state. The wind speed is kept at 105 kt, which
nearly matches the latest CIMSS satellite consensus (SATCON). The
cyclone has less than a day over warm water left to intensify before
it encounters SSTs less than 26C. Douglas should only slowly
weaken thereafter during the next few days due to the cooler waters
along the predicted track since the vertical shear should remain
low through Saturday. As the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian
Islands on Sunday, while the SSTs increase, so does the shear, and
thus a continued weakening is forecast. Model guidance is
consistent from the last forecast, and no significant changes were
made to the NHC wind speed prediction.
Douglas has been moving a little faster to the west-northwest, or
290/17. A large mid-level ridge over the eastern and central
Pacific should continue to steer the hurricane on this general
course and speed for the next couple of days, with some
deceleration and a westward turn by late in the weekend. While the
guidance remains in very good agreement, the only significant
change to note is that this forecast is a bit faster than the
previous one, but not as fast as the ECMWF or its ensemble mean.
Key Messages:
1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect
portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas
and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 13.6N 135.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.5N 138.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 15.8N 141.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 17.0N 144.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 18.1N 147.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 19.1N 150.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 19.8N 153.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 20.7N 159.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 21.5N 165.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
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