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Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122020
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020
 
Genevieve remains an impressive hurricane.  Geostationary satellite
and microwave images show a well organized inner core with a nearly
circular eye and pronounced outer bands in most quadrants.
However, just recently, there has been evidence of a few dry slots
forming between the inner core and outer bands.  An average of the
latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
supports holding the initial intensity steady at 115 kt.
 
The hurricane still has another day or so over warm SSTs and in
favorable atmospheric conditions, so Genevieve should maintain its
intensity or perhaps strengthen a little during that time period.
After that time, however, progressively cooler waters, drier air,
and an increase in wind shear should cause a rapid decay of the
cyclone.  Genevieve will likely become post-tropical in 4 to 5 days
when it is expected to be over SSTs of 22-23 C.  The NHC intensity
forecast lies near the high end of the guidance for the first day
or so, and then falls in line with the various consensus aids after
that.
 
Genevieve is moving a little slower to the northwest, with the
latest initial motion estimated to be 310/10 kt.  A slightly slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, taking
the core of the hurricane just west of the southern Baja California
peninsula during that time.  The models have shifted to the right
this cycle, closer to the Baja coast, and the NHC forecast follows
this trend. Thereafter, a building mid-level ridge should cause
Genevieve to turn slightly to the left, away from the Baja coast.
Due to the eastward shift in the track forecast, the government of
Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning and Watch northward
on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to move just west of the Baja
California peninsula, but it is still expected to cause tropical
storm conditions across portions of southern Baja California Sur.
These conditions are expected to begin Wednesday afternoon and
could spread northwestward through Thursday.
 
2. Large swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the
coast of southern Mexico and will spread northward along the coast
of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula by Wednesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/2100Z 18.7N 108.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 19.7N 109.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 20.9N 110.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 21.8N 111.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 22.7N 112.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  21/0600Z 23.4N 113.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 24.4N 115.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 26.6N 118.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 28.9N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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