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Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132020
300 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020
 
Shortly after the release of the previous advisory, microwave
imagery from a WindSat overpass showed no indication of a
well-defined center near Hernan's estimated location. However,there
was a hint of a small vortex well to the northeast. Subsequent
ASCAT data showed that the well-defined vortex had moved near the
Islas Marias and had winds of 30-35 kt. Data from the Geostationary
Lightning Mapper showed a continuous maximum in lightning near
Hernan's center from yesterday afternoon through the new estimated
position. Confidence is therefore fairly high that Hernan has
persisted as a tropical cyclone, at least through 0400 UTC this
morning.

Due to the northeastward relocation of the center, the track 
forecast has been significantly changed in that direction and now 
shows Hernan entering the Gulf of California later today. Hernan 
appears to be quickly moving around a larger low-level cyclonic gyre 
centered just west of the coast of Mexico. The gyre could steer 
Hernan or its remnants over the Baja California peninsula later 
today or early Saturday, but it is not forecast to have sustained
tropical-storm-force winds at that time. All of the global models 
show Hernan opening into a trough within about 24 hours, but it 
could happen much sooner than that- possibly before Hernan even 
reaches the Gulf of California. If Hernan does make it to the coast 
as a depression or remnant low, it could produce some gusty winds 
before it quickly weakens and dissipates.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 22.7N 107.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 23.6N 108.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 24.2N 110.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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