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Tropical Depression Julio Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152020
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020

Julio is losing organization.  A small area of deep convection 
remains near the assumed center, which is best identified by SSMIS 
microwave data a few hours ago.  However, Socorro Island, located 
about 30 miles south of the center, never showed any westerly winds. 
While it is possible the system has already opened up into a 
trough, advisories are being continued on the assumption that the 
island missed the small system's circulation.  The initial wind 
speed is set to 30 kt due to the decay in overall satellite 
presentation.

The depression is moving westward at a slower speed than before, 
roughly 11 kt.  This motion is expected tomorrow at a slower 
speed as a ridge breaks down to the north of the cyclone.  
Afterwards, since the tropical cyclone is so small, a larger 
surface low to the southwest of the system seems likely to weaken 
Julio and then absorb the tropical cyclone in a couple of days.  
Thus the track forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, and 
the new intensity forecast is reduced as well.  A plausible 
alternative scenario is that overnight scatterometer data will show 
that the system has already degenerated into a surface trough.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 19.4N 111.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 19.5N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 19.5N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 19.3N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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