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Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
Corrected initial storm motion in second paragraph
Enrique continues to exhibit a well organized structure on satellite
imagery. First-light visible shows the formation of a ring of
overshooting tops along Enrique's north and west sides, a sign that
an eyewall is organizing. Indeed, a recent 1207 UTC SSMIS microwave
pass showed this formative eyewall, though some dry air also appears
to be wrapping around the hurricane along its eastern flank.
Satellite intensity estimates this morning include subjective Dvorak
estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB, T4.5/75 kt from SAB, and an
objective estimate of T4.3/72 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial
intensity is increased to 75 kt for this advisory, favoring the
higher intensity estimates based on the improvement in satellite
structure since 1200 UTC.
Satellite imagery suggests that the estimated motion is beginning to
bend a bit rightward at 300/06 kt. As the mid-level ridge to the
north of the storm weakens over the next day or so, Enrique should
slow down and turn a bit more to the northwest. The large region of
monsoonal southwesterly flow south and east of the hurricane may
also be influencing this rightward bend in the track in the short
term. The new forecast track has shifted again to the right,
especially over the first 48 hours, following the track guidance
consensus and close to the most recent ECMWF ensemble mean. The
small size of the 64-kt wind radii forecast with Enrique should keep
the highest winds offshore, but any additional eastward track
adjustments could require hurricane watches for portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico later today.
Conditions remains favorable for Enrique to intensify further in the
short term, and the current rapid intensification cycle is expected
to continue the next 12 to 24 h with the hurricane peaking at 95 kt.
Thereafter, an increase in easterly shear could help import dry
down-sloping flow off the higher Mexican terrain into Enrique's
core. In addition, the depth of warm sea-surface temperatures along
Enrique's track becomes increasingly shallow and any further
slowdown in the forward motion would result in cool ocean upwelling.
Thus, Enrique is expected to begin weakening after 24 h, and this
steady weakening should continue through the end of the forecast
period as sea-surface temperatures decrease along the forecast
track.
Key Messages:
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 17.1N 105.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 17.5N 105.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 18.3N 106.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 19.4N 106.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 20.1N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 20.6N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 22.9N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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