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Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021
 
Enrique has been holding its own over the past several hours, with 
some warming of the cloud tops over the estimated center, suggesting 
that an eye is attempting to form.  The northern portion of the core 
appears to be entraining some dry air, which is likely due to 
down-sloping from the offshore flow over the mountainous terrain of 
Mexico. Otherwise, the core of the hurricane appears well intact, 
and the latest Dvorak intensity estimate T-number from TAFB 
indicates that the initial intensity remains 80 kt for this 
advisory. 

Enrique has been wobbling on a nearly due north trajectory for the 
past 12 h or so, while the forward motion has appeared to increase 
to about 5 kt. There is little change to the forecast track 
reasoning. Embedded in generally weak steering flow, Enrique is 
forecast to move toward a mid-level trough over northwestern Mexico. 
This trough is expected to gradually fill in over the next day or 
so, causing the system to turn to the north-northwest. By late 
Monday and Tuesday, the weakening cyclone should turn northwestward 
as it becomes steered by the lower-tropospheric environmental flow. 
The latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one, and is 
close to the TVCE consensus.

Overall, the environment surrounding Enrique is favorable for 
strengthening in the near term. On Monday, the hurricane is forecast 
to begin moving over waters of decreasing oceanic heat content. Due 
to the fairly slow motion of the cyclone over these waters, 
upwelling should bring cooler waters to the surface. This would 
induce a gradual weakening trend beginning sometime tomorrow. By 
Tuesday, the cyclone is expected to begin moving over much cooler 
waters and into a drier and stable atmospheric environment, which 
will hasten the pace of weakening. Most of the guidance shows 
Enrique becoming a remnant low very near the time it reaches the 
southern Baja California peninsula, with the low dissipating a short 
time thereafter. Other than indicating a little faster transition to 
a remnant low and dissipation, the official intensity forecast is 
very similar to the previous one, near the high end of the guidance 
through 36 h, and then a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM models and the 
intensity consensus after 36 h.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains 
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of 
days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides.
 
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across 
portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday.  Although the 
core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any 
deviation to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the 
wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore over a portion of 
the southwestern coast of Mexico.  Therefore, a Hurricane Watch 
remains in effect for a portion of that area.
 
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the 
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells 
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 18.2N 105.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 19.9N 106.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 20.6N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 21.1N 108.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  30/0000Z 21.8N 108.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 22.6N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  01/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto/Stewart
 
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