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TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142021
1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LAZARO
CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA MEXICO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA.  WARNINGS OR ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 100.8W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 100.8W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 100.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.2N 101.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.3N 103.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.7N 103.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.4N 104.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.2N 106.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.3N 108.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 24.0N 110.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 100.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 26/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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