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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142021
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021
 
...DEPRESSION CHANGES LITTLE THIS EVENING...
...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 100.1W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of the tropical depression.  Watches may be required for a
portion of the coast on Thursday.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression 
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 100.1 
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). 
A turn toward the west-northwest is expected early Thursday, 
followed by a turn toward the northwest or north-northwest on Friday 
and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of the system is 
expected to pass near but offshore of the southwestern coast of 
Mexico on Friday and Saturday and then approach the southern portion 
of Baja California Sur on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the 
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and 
then reach hurricane intensity over the weekend.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is expected to produce
heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca,
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco beginning Friday.
Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend
with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches possible.  As a result,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin
affecting the southern coast of Mexico overnight and on Thursday
and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico
through the end of the week.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
 
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