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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142021
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021
 
...NORA STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 104.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to San Blas Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Nora.  Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of these areas tonight or on Saturday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 104.9 West.  Nora is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A motion toward
the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern
coast of Mexico tonight and pass very near the coasts of the states 
of Jalisco and Nayarit Saturday and Saturday night.  Nora will then 
approach and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the 
next few days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane on 
Saturday.
 
Nora is a large tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds 
extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring
over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will
spread to northern portions of the warning area through Saturday
night.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.  Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches
are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches possible.  This rainfall will produce life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.
 
As Nora continues northwest, heavy rainfall will move into Baja
California Sur late Sunday into Monday.  Rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches
possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur as a
result.
 
Toward the middle and later part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the
weekend into early next week.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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