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BULLETIN
Hurricane Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142021
700 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021
 
...NORA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST 
OF JALISCO MEXICO LATER TODAY...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND 
MUD SLIDES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 105.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo northward to San Blas Mexico
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Manzanillo Mexico to Lazaro Cardenas
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12-24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next 24-36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere further along the northwestern coast of
mainland Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should
monitor the progress of Nora.  Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of these areas today or tonight.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 105.4 West. Nora is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through the weekend.  A slight bend to the
northwest is forecast by early next week. On the forecast track, the
center of Nora is expected to approach the southwestern coast of
Mexico later today and pass very near the coast of the states of
Jalisco and Nayarit by tonight.  Nora is then forecast to approach
and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Some strengthening is anticipated as long as Nora remains
offshore the coast of Mexico.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area along the coast of mainland Mexico beginning later today.
Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch
area later today and may spread to the northern portions of the 
watch area tomorrow.  Tropical storm conditions are likely 
occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area 
and will spread to the northern portions of the warning area later 
today and tomorrow.
 
RAINFALL:  Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco.  Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are
forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches possible.  This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.
 
As Nora continues north-northwest, heavy rainfall will move into
the Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals
of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur as a
result.
 
Additional heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches are possible across Sinaloa and Sonora during
the middle to latter part of next week as Nora moves northwest
through the Gulf of California.
 
Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where 
the center passes the coast, or east of the center if Nora makes 
landfall.  The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive 
waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the
weekend and into early next week.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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