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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182021
1000 PM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021
 
The depression remains weak and disheveled.  Satellite images show 
disorganized and transient patches of deep convection surrounding 
the center, and the cloud pattern has generally changed little for 
much of the day.  The initial intensity is again held at 30 kt, 
which is near the high end of the latest satellite intensity 
estimates.  
 
Dry and stable air, partly from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap 
wind event, continues to entrain into the circulation, which is 
likely the reason why the system has been struggling.  Despite 
relatively low wind shear, continued stable air should prevent 
strengthening in the short term. In fact, the depression could even 
degenerate into a remnant low this weekend.  By early next week, 
however, the system is forecast to move into a more favorable 
environment, and gradual strengthening is possible at that time.  
The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and in 
line with the majority of the normally skillful models.
 
The depression continues to move just south of due west at about 10 
kt.  This motion should continue through Saturday due to the 
influence of strong northeasterly low-level flow funneling through 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  From Sunday through the middle of next 
week, a slightly faster westward motion is forecast as a mid-level 
ridge becomes well established to the north of the cyclone.  The new 
NHC track forecast is a touch to the south of the previous one, 
trending toward a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.  This forecast 
is slightly south of the consensus aids, which could be biased to 
the north due to the UKMET, which is well north of the other models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z  8.9N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z  8.7N  95.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z  8.4N  98.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z  8.4N 100.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z  8.7N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z  9.2N 105.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z  9.6N 107.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 10.4N 112.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 10.8N 117.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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