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TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
0300 UTC MON SEP 26 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD 
SOUTHWARD TO THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS 
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO THE CARD SOUND 
BRIDGE
* FLORIDA BAY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  81.4W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  81.4W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  80.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.7N  82.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.8N  83.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.7N  84.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.7N  84.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.2N  83.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.6N  83.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 29.0N  83.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 32.0N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N  81.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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