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Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
100 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022
 
...CENTER OF NICOLE PASSES OVER GREAT ABACO ISLAND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...26.5N 77.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM W OF MARSH HARBOR GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued south of Hallandale 
Beach Florida.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bimini in the northwestern Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 77.3 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Thursday, and north or north-northeast on Friday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move near or over the
Abacos and Grand Bahama in the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon 
and move onshore the east coast of Florida within the hurricane 
warning area tonight.  Nicole's center is then expected to move 
across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday 
and Thursday night, and then across the Carolinas Friday and Friday 
night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is expected today, and Nicole is forecast
to become a hurricane near the northwestern Bahamas and remain a
hurricane when it reaches the east coast of Florida tonight.  Nicole
is expected to weaken while moving across Florida and the
southeastern United States Thursday through Friday, and it is likely
to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night over the
Mid-Atlantic states.
 
Nicole is a large tropical storm.  Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 460 miles (740 km) especially to the north of
the center. A private weather station on Elbow Cay, just east of 
Great Abaco Island, recently reported sustained winds of 43 mph 
(69 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 mph (59 km/h).  The National Ocean 
Service station at the Lake Worth Pier, Florida, recently reported 
a wind gust of 59 mph (95 km/h).
 
The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter data is 985 mb (29.09 inches).  The station at Elbow Cay 
recently reported a pressure of 985.7 mb (29.11 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the
northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane conditions are expected to
spread westward in areas in hurricane warning area through this
evening.  Tropical storm conditions are also occurring along
portions of the east coast of Florida and will spread northward
within the warning area through Georgia and South Carolina this 
afternoon and tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the 
hurricane warning area in Florida tonight or Thursday morning.  
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area 
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning 
area along the west coast of Florida by this evening or tonight.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft
* South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina...1 to 2 ft
 
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
 
RAINFALL:  Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday night:
 
Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions
of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8
inches.
 
Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western
Mid-Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:
2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.
 
Northern Mid-Atlantic into portions of New England: 1 to 4 inches.
 
Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today
into Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward
across portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and New England
Thursday into Friday night, where limited flooding impacts will be
possible.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible this evening through
Thursday across eastern Florida, southeastern Georgia and southern
South Carolina.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next few days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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