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Tropical Storm Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
700 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022
 
...AGATHA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...13.9N 98.4W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Preparations to 
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was
re-located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 98.4 West. Agatha is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A turn
toward the northeast is forecast to occur late tonight or Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern
coast of Mexico on Sunday and make landfall there on Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast overnight, and Agatha 
could become a hurricane on Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions possible Sunday night.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning areas on Monday.
 
STORM SURGE:  Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the
center of Agatha makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL:  Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico by Sunday into Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts
are currently expected:
 
Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.
 
Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.
 
Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches, 
with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. 
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.
 
Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Agatha are expected to begin affecting
the coast of southern Mexico tonight.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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