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Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number  20...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Corrected advisory number
 
Radar data from the Nicaraguan Weather Service in Las Nubes
indicate that Bonnie has moved offshore from extreme southern
Nicaragua and becomes one of the rare tropical cyclones to
cross from the Atlantic Basin into the eastern Pacific Basin. The
center of circulation remains well-defined after crossing southern
Nicaragua last night, and satellite data during the last several
hours indicate that deep convection remains active near the center
of the storm. Given the robust structure apparent on radar and
satellite, the initial intensity is held steady at 35 kt for this
advisory, despite the land interactions during the past 12 hours or
so.
 
Bonnie is moving due west at 270/14 kt. The primary steering
influence throughout the forecast period is a deep-layer ridge
located north of the storm, which is expected to cause Bonnie to
track west-northwestward and remain offshore and roughly parallel to
the coast of Central America and Mexico.  Track guidance is in good
agreement throughout the forecast period, and the official forecast
is very similar to the consensus track aids and the prior forecast.
Although the strongest winds are expected to remain offshore,
interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico
should continue to monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as
any northward track adjustments could require tropical storm watches
for portions of this coastline.
 
While the well-defined structure indicates that some strengthening
is possible in the next day or so, sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
are only marginally conducive for intensification and confined to a
relatively shallow depth.  For this reason, intensification is
forecast to occur slowly for the next 24 hours until Bonnie reaches
warmer waters in about 36 hours, after which the rate of
intensification is forecast to increase.  Similar to the previous
forecast, Bonnie is expected to reach hurricane strength in about
three days, and the intensity forecast is near the center of the
guidance envelope.
 
In association with Bonnie crossing into the eastern Pacific,
product headers for Bonnie have changed to eastern Pacific headers
beginning with this advisory, with the ATCF identifier changing from
AL022022 to EP042022.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica will
continue today. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific
coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning
areas for the next several hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 11.2N  86.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 11.3N  88.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 11.7N  90.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 12.5N  93.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 13.4N  96.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 14.3N  99.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 15.1N 102.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 16.0N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 16.6N 111.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett
 
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