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HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022
1500 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR LAS
ISLAS MARIAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 107.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 107.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 107.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.3N 107.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.6N 106.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.8N 105.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 24.0N 105.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 107.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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