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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042023
2100 UTC THU JUN 22 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  44.0W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  44.0W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  43.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 12.0N  45.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.2N  48.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.4N  50.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.0N  53.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.6N  56.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.1N  58.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 21.6N  63.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 24.0N  66.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N  44.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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