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Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222023
400 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023
 
NHC has been monitoring the development of a broad area of low
pressure over the western Caribbean Sea during the past several
days.  Satellite images and recent data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the low has a closed but 
broad circulation, and there is no evidence yet of a well-defined 
center.  Elongated bands of deep convection extend over much of 
the eastern part of the circulation and are streaming northward 
toward portions of the Greater Antilles.  Since the system is 
forecast to become a tropical storm, and there is a risk of 
tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Greater Antilles, 
southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands during the next 
couple of days, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical 
Cyclone Twenty-Two.

The initial motion is uncertain since the system does not yet have 
a well-defined center, but the overall cloud system appears to be 
moving generally north-northeastward, or 015/8 kt.  The disturbance 
is forecast to turn northeastward by tonight due to a broad 
mid-level trough located over Florida and the adjacent waters.  A 
continued northeastward motion with increasing forward speed is 
then expected through the weekend as the system becomes 
increasingly picked up by the trough.  Although there is a bit 
uncertainty in the forecast track since there is not yet a center 
to track, the model guidance is in generally good agreement on this 
scenario.  The NHC track forecast blends the latest TVCA and HCCA 
consensus aids.

The system's broad nature, increasing southerly shear, and nearby 
dry air suggest that it likely won't strengthen much.  That said, 
the disturbance could become a tropical depression or tropical storm 
tonight or on Friday if the circulation can contract enough for a 
well-defined center to form.  Conditions should be sufficiently 
conducive to allow for modest strengthening, and the NHC intensity 
forecast is just below the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.  Most 
global model fields indicate the cyclone should become extratropical 
over the western Atlantic in about 3 days, and then become absorbed 
by a front by day 5.

The most significant hazard from this system is likely to be heavy 
rainfall, especially in areas of higher terrain, across portions of 
Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is forecast to become a 
tropical storm on Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible 
across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, 
and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Saturday, and tropical 
storm watches are now in effect for these areas.

2.  Heavy rains will affect portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, 
southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola through Monday morning.  This 
rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides 
in areas of higher terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 15.2N  81.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  17/0600Z 15.7N  80.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 24H  17/1800Z 17.0N  79.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 19.2N  76.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 21.9N  73.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  19/0600Z 25.3N  69.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 29.4N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  20/1800Z 38.0N  54.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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