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Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072023
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Satellite imagery indicates that small Fernanda has been 
strengthening rapidly today.  A faint eye has become apparent on 
visible satellite imagery, and outer banding features are becoming 
better defined.  Since the presence of a visible eye is usually a 
good indicator that a tropical cyclone has become a hurricane, the 
system is being upgraded on this advisory.  This intensity is also 
in agreement with a Dvorak classification from SAB.  The upper-level 
outflow pattern has also become more symmetric over the circulation.

Fernanda continues moving west-northwestward at a slightly slower 
pace with an estimated motion of 285/8 kt.  The mid-level ridge to 
the north of the tropical cyclone is currently rather weak due to 
the presence of a cutoff low near the California coast.  Over 
the next few days, the ridge to the north of Fernanda is forecast 
to strengthen as the influence of the cutoff low lessens.  As a 
result, the system should move somewhat faster to the 
west-northwest during the next 72 hours or so while turning 
westward later in the forecast period.  The official track forecast 
remains very close to the previous one and is also very similar to 
the dynamical model consensus aid TVCE.

The hurricane should continue to pass over SSTs of around 29 deg C 
for the next day or two while remaining in a very low vertical shear 
environment.  The rapid intensification (RI) indices such as SHIPS,
RII, and DTOPS continue to show a good chance of RI continuing over 
the next day or so.  Thus, the official forecast will again call for 
RI over the next 24 hours. However, in about 48 hours, drier 
mid-level air should halt the strengthening process.  The numerical 
guidance is in good agreement that Fernanda will steadily weaken in 
2-5 days, and this is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast, which 
is fairly close to the latest corrected consensus prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 15.5N 116.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 15.8N 117.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 16.2N 119.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 16.7N 120.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 17.3N 122.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  16/0600Z 17.5N 124.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 17.7N 127.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 18.0N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 18.0N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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