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TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092023
2100 UTC WED AUG 16 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.7W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......180NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 105SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.7W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.5N 105.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...240NE 120SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.6N 107.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 110SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.8N 109.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 130SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.2N 111.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 140SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.0N 112.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.3N 113.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 160SW 180NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 27.8N 115.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 34.3N 118.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 103.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
 
 
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