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HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092023
2100 UTC THU AUG 17 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.9W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT.......100NE  80SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.9W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.0N 110.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.4N 112.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 120SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...250NE 230SE 140SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.4N 113.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 150SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 160SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 28.5N 115.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 140SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 35.4N 118.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 43.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 108.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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