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HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2023
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
OXNARD CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21)
OXNARD CA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
OXNARD CA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19)
SANTA CRUZ IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
SANTA CRUZ IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 5(28)
LONG BEACH/LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11)
LONG BEACH/LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 4(29)
S CATALINA IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13)
S CATALINA IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 2(41)
SAN DIEGO CA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18)
SAN DIEGO CA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13)
TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 1(28)
TIJUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8)
ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) 1(50)
ENSENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21)
ENSENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8)
IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) X(27)
IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7)
IS GUADALUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 56(56) 26(82) X(82)
PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 29(49) 1(50)
PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) X(25)
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 65(66) 6(72) X(72)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 7(38) X(38)
P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 2(22) X(22)
P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 1(29)
P PENASCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7)
P PENASCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) X(21)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12)
15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
15N 110W 34 52 3(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
15N 110W 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 110W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 110W 34 4 23(27) 18(45) 2(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48)
20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 7 75(82) 15(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 39(40) 30(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 11(11) 25(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
ISLA CLARION 34 X 5( 5) 16(21) 5(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 28(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 81(87) 1(88) X(88)
25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 60(60) 2(62) X(62)
25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 2(40) X(40)
25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
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