ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102023
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 26 2023
 
While abundant deep convection continues in association with 
Tropical Depression Ten-E, there is little curvature to the 
convection and the low-level center continues to be positioned on 
the northeastern side of the deep convection. Subjective Dvorak 
intensity fixes from SAB and TAFB are unchanged (and the ASCAT 
scatterometers missed sampling the system), so Ten-E's maximum 
winds remain at 30 kt. 
 
While the system is currently located over quite warm waters with 
abundant moisture and low vertical wind shear, these conducive 
conditions will not last long. Along the projected forecast track, 
the sea-surface temperatures should lower below 26C as moisture 
decreases and convective instability diminishes in about 36 h. On 
days 4 to 5, the system should encounter even colder waters and 
drier conditions. Based on the above conditions, Ten-E is 
anticipated to only gradually intensify through 24-36 h, followed by 
gradual weakening until it is forecast to become a remnant low at 
around day 4. The official intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN 
simple consensus and shows a slightly weaker peak intensity than the 
previous advisory.
 
Currently, the tropical depression is moving toward the 
west-northwest at around 10 kt.  A longitudinally-extended mid-level 
ridge should continue the system's movement toward the 
west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed for the next 
couple days.  As Ten-E begins to weaken, it should turn toward the 
west at a slower rate of speed while it gets steered by the 
low-level trades. There continues to be significant along-track 
spread among the guidance. The GFS global model and HAFS-COAMPS 
hurricane models are substantially slower along the track, while the 
UKMET and ECMWF global models are substantially faster.  The 
official track forecast is most similar to the HFIP corrected 
consensus technique - which leans a bit toward the latter track 
solutions - and is nearly unchanged from the previous advisory.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 16.6N 119.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 17.3N 120.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 17.9N 122.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 18.3N 125.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 18.3N 127.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  29/1800Z 18.2N 130.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 18.0N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  31/0600Z 18.3N 138.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0600Z 18.8N 141.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Landsea
 
NNNN