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Hurricane Jova Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023
 
Jova continues to rapidly intensify this morning.  Infrared 
satellite imagery shows deep convection, with very cold cloud tops 
over the central core of the system.  A SSMIS microwave pass at 
1129Z revealed a well-defined core with a closed mid-level eye, 
and a low-level eye vertically aligned with the mid-level center. 
Hi-resolution 1-minute GOES visible imagery is also showing signs 
of an eye.  A blend of the Dvorak subjective and objective 
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMMS are between 85 
to 90 kt. Given the structure depicted on microwave imagery, will 
lean towards the higher end of these estimates with the initial 
intensity for this advisory set to 90 kt.
 
Environmental conditions continue to be conducive for rapid 
intensification, with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface 
temperatures along the forecast track.  Statistical models continue 
to show extremely high probabilities of further rapid 
intensification. DTOPS and SHIPS guidance are both extremely high 
and well above the climatological mean during the next 12 to 24 
hours.  The peak intensity has been raised to 125 kt in about 36 h. 
Given the conducive environment, the NHC intensity forecast 
continues to favor the stronger model guidance with continued rapid 
intensification. The intensity forecast lies above the consensus 
aids and regional hurricane models. In about 3 days, Jova is 
forecast to cross over much cooler SSTs and encounter some drier 
mid-level air, which should induce weakening.   
 
Jova is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt.  The track forecast is 
fairly straightforward.  Jova is moving along the southern 
periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico.  The 
hurricane is expected to continue moving west-northwestward as it 
rounds the southwestern edge of the high through the forecast 
period.  The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the 
previous advisory, except for a slightly faster forward speed.  
The updated forecast track lies near the corrected consensus aid.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 14.2N 110.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 14.9N 112.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 15.7N 115.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 16.8N 117.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 18.0N 120.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 19.2N 123.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 20.5N 125.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 22.9N 129.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 24.9N 133.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown
 
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