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Hurricane Jova Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 07 2023
 
Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows Jova is gradually 
weakening. The eye has been cloud-filled for much of the day, with 
dry air trying to wrap into the southern and eastern side of the 
system. SSMIS microwave imagery depicts the earlier thick concentric 
eyewall is starting to thin, with the inner core becoming less 
pronounced. Infrared imagery shows this as well with the infrared 
cloud tops warming throughout the day as well. Subjective satellite 
estimates were lower this advisory, with Dvorak final-T numbers of 
6.0 and CI numbers of 7.0 from both TAFB and SAB. Given the 
structural changes depicted in microwave and visible imagery, the 
initial intensity for this advisory is lowered to 125 kt, which 
falls between the latest Dvorak estimates.
 
Jova may continue to experience some short-term intensity 
fluctuations as it undergoes structural changes and moves into a 
less favorable environment. In about 24 h, Jova will cross a sharp 
sea surface temperature gradient into cooler waters, while it moves 
into a drier, more stable airmass. This will induce a steady 
weakening trend over the next few days. By the end of the forecast 
period, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models 
suggests the cyclone will be devoid of convection, and the official 
forecast shows Jova becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 96 h.
 
The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward at 15 kt around a 
mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. Jova should generally 
follow this motion for the next several days. As the system weakens 
and becomes a shallow vortex, a turn toward the west and southwest 
within the low-level flow is anticipated. The guidance envelope 
remains in good agreement, and the track forecast is similar to the 
previous advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 17.7N 117.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 18.6N 119.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 19.8N 122.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 21.0N 124.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 22.4N 126.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 23.6N 127.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 24.5N 129.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 25.0N 131.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/1800Z 24.2N 133.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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