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Hurricane Jova Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 07 2023
 
The satellite presentation of Jova has changed drastically since
yesterday evening. Earlier 21 UTC AMSR2 microwave data showed a
large moat surrounding the very small inner core of the hurricane,
with a ragged secondary outer eyewall and fragmented curved bands of
convection well to the east and southeast of the center. The eye of
the hurricane has become cloud filled, and a convective asymmetry
has developed that is likely a product of some northeasterly shear
affecting Jova. All indications are that Jova is weakening, which is
consistent with the latest satellite intensity estimates. Based on a
blend of the latest data-T and current intensity Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt,
which also agrees well with recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates.
 
Continued weakening is expected over the next several days. Jova
will cross a significant SST gradient and move over progressively
cooler waters during the next several days while the hurricane gains
latitude. This track will also bring Jova into a drier and more
stable environment, making it increasingly difficult for the cyclone
to maintain its convective structure. This forecast update shows a
faster rate of weakening that is supported by the latest intensity
guidance. The global models agree that Jova is likely to be devoid
of organized convection by early next week, and the NHC forecast
shows post-tropical status in 96 h.
 
The eye of Jova has wobbled some during the past several hours, but
the longer-term motion remains west-northwestward (295/15 kt). The
hurricane is forecast to continue in this general direction for the
next couple of days while moving around the southwestern periphery
of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. A
brief turn to the northwest is shown between 48-72 h as the ridge
becomes reoriented to the east of Jova. By days 4 and 5, the shallow
cyclone should slowly turn westward within the low-level flow. The
latest NHC track forecast is slower than the previous one at 72 h
and beyond, bringing it into better agreement with the HCCA and TVCN
aids. Otherwise, no notable changes were made with this advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 18.3N 118.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 19.1N 120.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 20.3N 123.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 21.6N 125.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 23.0N 126.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 24.0N 127.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 24.6N 128.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 24.8N 130.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  13/0000Z 24.5N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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