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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
900 AM MDT Wed Oct 04 2023
 
Lidia continues to produce a large convective rain shield, with 
a deep convective burst and cloud top temperatures around -80 
degrees Celsius. An earlier microwave pass depicts that the system 
continues to gradually organize with a mid-level core developing, 
but the low-level center is still displaced to the east of the 
mid-level core, due to easterly vertical wind shear. Subjective 
Dvorak intensity estimates this cycle from TAFB and SAB were T3.0/45 
kt. Given the improved satellite depiction and intensity estimates 
the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt for this advisory.
 
The initial motion is north-northwestward or 335 degrees at 7 kt. A
mid-level ridge over Mexico will continue to steer the system
north-northwestward during the next day or so. Afterwards, a ridge
will build to the north of Lidia which will result in a slower
forward motion and a turn towards the west through the remainder of
the forecast period. There continues to be a large spread in the
along-track guidance as the system turns westward. Most of the
global models are faster, while the hurricane regional models and
HCCA corrected consensus are slower. Therefore, there is increased
uncertainty in the long range track forecast. The NHC track is
slightly faster than the previous, and lies between the faster
global models and the slower regional models.
 
Models are in fairly good agreement that the moderate-to-strong
easterly vertical wind shear will continue to persist over Lidia the
next several days. However, warm sea surface temperatures, a moist
environment and upper-level diffluence will allow slow strengthening
of the system. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
forecast, and the intensity forecast lies near the IVCN consensus
aid.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 14.8N 108.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 15.5N 109.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 16.0N 109.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 16.1N 110.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 16.1N 111.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 15.9N 111.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 15.7N 112.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 16.0N 114.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 16.3N 115.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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