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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
900 AM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023
 
Infrared satellite imagery this morning indicates that easterly 
shear continues to impact Lidia. A recent AMSR-2 microwave pass 
showed the low-level center embedded along the eastern edge of the 
most intense deep convection. Based on a blend of subjective and 
objective intensity estimates from TAFB/SAB and UW-CIMSS, 
respectively, the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory.

Lidia has begun its turn toward the northwest, and the storm is 
currently moving west-northwestward at approximately 4 kt. A slow 
turn to the north is expected during the next day or so, after which 
time it is expected to begin interacting with an approaching trough 
from the north. This interaction will result in an acceleration 
early next week toward the northeast and in the general direction 
of west-central Mexico. While some uncertainty exists in the 
forward speed forecast, the current forecast is very similar to the 
prior forecast and lies between the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. 
 
Easterly shear is forecast to remain strong and inhibit significant 
intensification through the weekend. During this time the NHC
intensity forecast shows little change. However, early next week 
the shear is expected to briefly relax as the storm begins to 
accelerate northeastward over warm sea-surface temperatures. During 
this time, Lidia is forecast to intensify to hurricane strength. Of 
note, southwesterly shear is expected to increase as the storm 
approaches Mexico, and the spread is quite large among the intensity 
guidance aids. The ECMWF and GFS global models both depict central 
pressures that suggest Lidia could maintain hurricane intensity, 
while other reliable statistical models and consensus aids are not 
as aggressive. The NHC forecast is similar to the prior forecast and 
near the center of the guidance envelope. Confidence in the 
intensity forecast is low considering the wide range of solutions, 
but interests in west-central Mexico should remain attentive to 
forecast updates in the coming days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 16.2N 112.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 16.5N 112.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 17.1N 112.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 17.9N 112.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 18.6N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 19.1N 110.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 19.8N 109.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 21.6N 105.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 23.9N 102.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Berg
 
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