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TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172023
1500 UTC WED OCT 18 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 107.9W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 107.9W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 107.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.8N 108.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  60SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  70SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.8N 108.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  70SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 109.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.6N 109.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N 109.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 21.9N 109.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 107.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
 
 
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