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BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172023
600 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023
 
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA 
TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 108.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to La Paz
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of 
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside 
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life 
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional
watches or warnings could be required today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located 
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 108.9 West. Norma is moving 
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower 
north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast through 
Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast or northeast 
on Sunday. On the forecast track, Norma is forecast to approach the 
southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight and Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next 
few days, but Norma is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves near 
the southern portion of Baja California Sur.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Baja California Sur by early Saturday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning late tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Baja California
Sur on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las
Islas Marias later today and tonight.
 
RAINFALL:  Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 
inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far 
southern portion of California Baja Sur. These rains will likely 
produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in 
areas of higher terrain.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas
of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, and will spread
northward along the coast of western Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
NNNN