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BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172023
1200 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023
 
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING NORMA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 109.5W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Topolobampo to Bahia Tempehuaya
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 
to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be 
rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional
watches or warnings could be required later today and tonight.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 109.5 West. Norma is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast through
Saturday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Sunday. On the
forecast track, Norma is expected to approach the southern portion
of Baja California Sur tonight and move near or over the area on
Saturday. Norma is forecast to move toward the west coast of
mainland Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.
 
Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that 
maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, but 
Norma is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves near or over the 
southern portion of Baja California Sur.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). An automated weather station on Socorro Island 
recently reported a sustained wind of 31 mph (50 km/h) and a gust 
to 47 mph (76 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 
963 mb (28.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Baja California Sur on Saturday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning late tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Baja California
Sur on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las
Islas Marias today and tonight, and in the watch area along the
west coast of Mexico by Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches across the far southern
portion of Baja California Sur through Sunday and across portions of
Sinaloa through Monday. These rains will likely produce flash and
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas
of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast 
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur. 
These swells will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico 
and the Baja California peninsula this weekend. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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