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Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
300 PM MDT Sat Nov 04 2023
 
Pilar continues to exhibit a central dense overcast pattern, and 
outer banding features have become a little better defined during 
the past several hours.  The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and 
SAB have increased to 3.0/45 kt.  However, an ASCAT-B pass from a 
few hours ago showed peak winds around 35 kt over a small area in 
the northwestern quadrant.  Based on a compromise of these data, the 
initial intensity is held at 40 kt, but it is possible that Pilar 
could be a little stronger.

The environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for 
strengthening during the next day or so, and the models generally 
show a little increase in Pilar's winds during that time.  By early 
Monday, however, the storm will be moving into an area of strong 
vertical wind shear and notably drier air.  These factors should 
result in a weakening trend, and Pilar will likely become a remnant 
low late Monday or early Tuesday.  The NHC intensity forecast is a 
touch higher than the previous one in the short term, and lies near 
the middle of the guidance envelope.

Pilar is moving westward at 14 kt on the southwest side of a 
mid-level ridge.  A turn to the west-northwest and then the 
northwest with a significant decrease in forward speed are forecast 
as the ridge breaks down.  Although the models generally agree on 
the large-scale pattern, there are significant differences on how 
vertically deep Pilar will be, which affects how much latitude the 
storm gains.  The GFS remains the model on the far right side while 
the ECMWF is on the far left side of the guidance.  Since Pilar is 
expected to weaken early next week, the NHC track forecast continues 
to favor the left side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement 
with the ECMWF and HCCA models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 10.4N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 10.6N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 11.1N 113.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 11.8N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 12.7N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 13.6N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1800Z 14.6N 118.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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