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Potential Tropical Cyclone ONE


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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012024
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
 
Satellite, surface, and aircraft data show that the center of 
the large low pressure area is over the Bay of Campeche with a 
central pressure near 1001 mb.  The system currently does not have 
the structure of a tropical cyclone, as the associated convection 
is poorly organized and the maximum winds are located about 
200-250 n mi northeast of the center.  The various global models 
forecast this band of stronger winds to start moving onto the 
western Gulf coast on Wednesday, and a Tropical Storm Watch is 
required at this time.  Thus, advisories are being initiated on 
Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

The initial motion is 345/6.  This general motion should continue 
for the next 24 h or so, although there could be some erratic 
motion due to center reformation.  After that, the cyclone is 
expected to turn west-northwestward and westward on the south side 
of a mid- to upper-level ridge over the northern Gulf coast.  This 
should steer the system into northeastern Mexico between 48-72 h.  
While there are differences in details due to the disorganized 
nature of the system, the track guidance is in good agreement on 
this general scenario.

The global models suggest that some deepening of the central 
pressure could occur, although none of them currently forecast the 
system to tighten up into a classic tropical cyclone.  Based on 
that, the intensity forecast calls for only modest strengthening.  
There is a chance than a small-scale vorticity center inside the 
large cyclonic envelope may develop enough convection to form a 
tighter wind core as suggested by the GFS, and based on this 
possibility the forecast has the system becoming a tropical storm in 
about 36 h.  However, there is a chance the system will never 
become a tropical cyclone.

Key Messages: 
1. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track of 
this system.  The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal 
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center 
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will 
impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico 
and southeastern Texas.   This rainfall will likely produce 
considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed 
river flooding.  Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher 
terrain across Central America into Northeast Mexico.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas 
Coast beginning early Tuesday and continuing through midweek. 

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Wednesday over 
portions of northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast south of Port 
O’Connor, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 20.3N  93.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  18/0600Z 21.1N  93.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  18/1800Z 22.2N  93.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 36H  19/0600Z 22.9N  95.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 48H  19/1800Z 23.4N  96.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 60H  20/0600Z 23.8N  97.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 72H  20/1800Z 24.0N  98.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  21/1800Z 24.0N 101.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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