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BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
 
...MILTON BRINGING DEVASTATING RAINS AND DAMAGING WINDS INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 82.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM WSW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued north of Anclote
River.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Anclote River,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was
located inland near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 82.0 West.  
Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), 
and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday, 
followed by a turn toward the east on late Thursday.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Milton will continue to move across 
the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off 
the east coast of Florida on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Milton is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity while 
crossing Florida overnight.  After moving into the Atlantic, Milton 
is expected to gradually lose tropical characteristics and slowly 
weaken.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the 
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles 
(405 km).  A sustained wind of 92 mph (148 km/h) and a gust of 107 
mph (172 km/h) was recently reported at a UF Sentinel/WeatherFlow 
station in Venice.  A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust 
of 82 mph (131 km/h) was recently reported at Tampa International 
Airport.  A gust of 94 mph (152 km/h) was recently reported at a 
Citizen Weather Observer Program station in Bartow.  A sustained 
wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h) was 
recently reported at Winter Haven Regional Airport.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...9-13 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...3-5 ft
Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
 
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 8 to 14 inches, with localized totals 
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of 
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday.  This rainfall will continue 
to bring the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and 
urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm 
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk 
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. 
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane
warning area and are spreading east-northeastward across the
Florida peninsula.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the 
hurricane watch area tonight and on Thursday.  Tropical storm
conditions are occurring along the west coast of Florida and have 
already reached the east coast of Florida.  Tropical storm 
conditions are expected to begin in the warning area along the 
Georgia and South Carolina coast on Thursday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.
 
TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible through early Thursday 
morning over parts of central and eastern Florida.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect
much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next day or two.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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