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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number   2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 22 2024
 
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 1.5 to 2.5 from 
PHFO, SAB and JTWC. The automated Dvorak techniques also show 
maximum winds of 30 to 35 kt. The Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone 
Surface Wind analysis shows a small area 35 kts on the north side 
of the center. Combined with additional development and improved 
curved band structure of the convection over the past few hours, the 
system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Hone.
 
The initial motion of Tropical Storm Hone is 290/12 knots, and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next several days
as it is steered by a subtropical ridge to the north.  A decrease
in forward speed, coupled with a slight turn towards the west-
northwest is expected around days 4 and 5 when the subtropical ridge
is forecast to start to weaken. The track forecast follows along
closely to the tightly clustered guidance consensus.
 
Hone is expected to remain in an environment of low to moderate
vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures between 27 and
28C,  and in a sufficient area of deep layer moisture over the next
several days. This should support gradual strengthening as the
system moves in a steady westward direction. Late in the weekend
into early next week, the system will begin to encounter an increase
in westerly vertical wind shear, and possibly some drier mid-level 
air. This should lead to the gradual weakening of the system. The 
intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus during the 
next several days, bringing the system up close to hurricane 
strength over the weekend, with the forecast lower than the 
consensus guidance by days 4 and 5.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Interests in the main Hawaiian Islands should monitor the 
progress of Tropical Storm Hone. Hone is forecast to pass near or 
south of the Big Island over the weekend, bringing the potential for 
heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and dangerous surf and rip currents. A 
Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of the main 
Hawaiian Islands tonight or Friday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 15.9N 142.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 16.3N 144.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 16.7N 146.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 17.0N 149.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 17.3N 151.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  25/0600Z 17.5N 154.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 17.8N 156.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 18.6N 159.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 19.5N 161.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster M Ballard/R Ballard
 
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