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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number   3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
500 PM HST Thu Aug 22 2024
 
Deep convection with Hone has faded over the last several hours and 
the curved band structure has become poorly defined once again. 
Similar to the prior advisory, subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimates from PHFO, SAB and JTWC range from 2.0 to 2.5, with 
automated Dvorak techniques maintaining 30 to 35 kt. Have held the 
initial intensity at 35 kt based on the consensus of Dvorak 
analyses. Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft will be able to 
give us a better idea of the intensity, structure, and size of Hone 
tomorrow morning.

The initial motion is 275/14, and this general motion is expected 
to continue over the next several days as it is steered by a 
subtropical ridge to the north.  As the subtropical ridge starts to 
weaken on days 4 to 5, expect a decrease in forward speed and a 
slight turn towards the west-northwest. The track forecast follows 
closely to the tightly clustered guidance consensus, which shifted 
just a touch south with this run.

Little change in the environmental conditions are expected along 
the forecast track over the next several days. This environment 
includes low to moderate vertical wind shear, warm sea surface 
temperatures of 27-28C, and sufficient deep layer moisture 
surrounding the tropical cyclone. This is expected to support 
gradual strengthening as the system moves in a generally westward 
direction. Late in the weekend into early next week, the system will 
begin to encounter an increase in westerly vertical wind shear, 
along with some drier mid-level air. This should lead to the gradual 
weakening of the system. The intensity forecast is close to the 
intensity consensus during the next several days, bringing the 
system close to hurricane strength over the weekend, with the 
forecast lower than the consensus by days 4 and 5, more closely in 
line with SHIPS guidance.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is the potential for excessive rainfall and flash flooding 
on portions of the Big Island starting later Saturday, continuing 
through Sunday and lingering into Monday as a large area of 
moisture associated with Hone. The heaviest rainfall will likely 
occur over windward and southeast facing slopes.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on the Big Island later 
Saturday into Sunday. Winds are expected to be strongest where they 
blow downslope from higher terrain, over headlands, and through 
passes.

3. Swell generated by Hone is expected to reach the Hawaiian 
islands Saturday night into Sunday. This swell could cause 
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories 
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 15.8N 143.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 16.1N 145.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 16.4N 147.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 16.8N 150.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 17.1N 152.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 17.3N 155.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 17.7N 157.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 18.6N 159.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 19.5N 162.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster M Ballard/R Ballard
 
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