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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number   5
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
500 AM HST Fri Aug 23 2024
 
The satellite appearance of Hone has changed little since 
the previous advisory package, with only limited deep convection 
near the low level circulation center. The latest subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimates came in at 2.5 for PHFO and 2.0 for SAB and
JTWC. The objective intensity estimates ADT/AiDT from UW-CIMSS came 
in at 35 knots and 38 knots respectively. Considering that the 
ASCAT MetOp-B pass last evening sampled a large swath of 35 to 40 
knot winds in the eastern semicircle of Hone, the initial intensity 
will be held at 40 knots for this advisory. A U.S. Air Force 
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is on it's way to sample Hone, and will 
give us valuable information on the intensity, structure, and 
size of the tropical cyclone later this morning.
 
The initial motion for this advisory is set at 280/14 knots. This
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of 
days as Hone is steered by a large subtropical ridge to the north. A
decrease in forward speed and a slight turn towards the
west-northwest is expected early next week as a weakness develops in 
the subtropical ridge north of the system. By the middle of next 
week, Hone will likely get increasingly shallow as vertical wind 
shear increases, allowing the system to turn back toward the west 
as it becomes steered by the low level trade wind flow. The
official forecast track is nearly identical to the track from the 
previous advisory, and closely follows the tightly clustered 
consensus guidance.
 
Environmental conditions will change little during the next couple 
of days. Hone will remain in an environment characterized by low to
moderate vertical wind shear, marginal sea surface temperatures 
around 26-27C, and marginally sufficient deep layer moisture. 
As a result, only slow and gradual strengthening of the 
system is forecast during the next couple of days as it moves 
steadily west to west-northwestward. It appears that there remains 
a window for further intensification Sunday and Monday as the 
system tracks south of the Hawaiian Islands. Hone will be moving 
into an area with slightly warmer sea surface temperatures around 
27C and higher ocean heat content, while the westerly vertical
wind shear remains at light to moderate levels. This could allow
Hone to reach Hurricane strength and the current official forecast
continues to reflect this. Beyond day 3, westerly vertical wind 
shear increases sharply to 30 to 40 knots, and some drier mid-level 
air appears to begin entraining into the system. This should result 
in steady weakening for days 4 and 5. The intensity forecast is 
close to the intensity consensus during the next couple days, and is 
roughly a blend of the consensus and dynamical intensity guidance 
from days 3 through 5.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. There is the potential for excessive rainfall and flash flooding
on portions of the Big Island starting later Saturday, continuing
through Sunday and lingering into Monday as a large area of
moisture associated with Hone. The heaviest rainfall will likely
occur over windward and southeast facing slopes.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on the Big Island later
Saturday into Sunday. Winds are expected to be strongest where they
blow downslope from higher terrain, over headlands, and through
passes.
 
3. Swell generated by Hone is expected to reach the Hawaiian
islands Saturday night into Sunday. This swell could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 16.4N 146.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 16.6N 148.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 17.0N 151.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 17.4N 153.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 17.8N 156.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  26/0000Z 18.3N 158.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 18.9N 160.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 20.0N 163.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 20.1N 166.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 
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