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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number   8
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 23 2024
 
The appearance of Tropical Storm Hone has improved significantly 
from earlier this afternoon, with deep convection over the low-level 
circulation center and convective banding nearly encircling the 
storm. The latest Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in 
at 2.5 from all fix agencies with UW-CIMSS ADT and AiDT coming in at 
32 and 36 knots respectively. Valuable information was received from 
a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft which sampled 
Hone once again this evening. The aircraft sampled maximum sustained 
flight level winds of 56 knots, which reduces to 50 knots at the 
surface, max SFMR winds of 43 knots, and maximum MBL winds of 54 
knots, which reduces to 45 knots at the surface. Taking a blend of 
these data and accounting for the improvement in structure of the 
system, the initial intensity will be increased to 50 knots with 
this advisory package. The central pressure of Hone was lowered to 
998 mb due to dropsonde data obtained by the aircraft.

The initial motion has shifted a bit further north of due west, and 
is set at 285/12 for this advisory. This general motion, slightly 
north of due west, will continue during the next several days as 
Hone is steered by a deep subtropical ridge to the north. However, 
some slowing of the forward motion is expected as the deep ridge to 
the north of Hone weakens slightly. Along this track, Hone will be 
passing near or just south of the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday 
into early Sunday, and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect 
for the Big Island of Hawaii. By the middle of next week, Hone will 
likely become increasingly shallow as vertical wind shear increases, 
allowing the low level trade wind flow to steer the system toward 
the west. The official forecast track has been nudged a bit north of 
the previous advisory due to the recent movement trends of the 
system, and closely follows the tightly clustered consensus 
guidance.

Environmental conditions will change little during the next 24 
hours, with sea surface temperatures between 26C and 27C, light to 
moderate vertical wind shear, and marginally sufficient mid-level 
moisture. As a result, the forecast calls for continued slow 
strengthening. Beyond 24 hours, sea surface temperatures increase 
to around 27C and ocean heat content becomes more favorable as 
well. This should allow Hone to reach Hurricane strength Sunday 
through Monday, before increasing vertical wind shear weakens the 
system Monday night through the middle of next week. The intensity 
forecast follows dynamical consensus guidance closely and is 
similar to the previous advisory package.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. There is the potential for excessive rainfall and flash flooding
on portions of the Big Island of Hawaii starting Saturday afternoon
and continuing through Sunday as a large area of moisture 
associated with Hone moves over parts of the Hawaiian Islands. The
heaviest rainfall will likely occur over windward and southeast
facing slopes.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on the Big Island 
Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Winds are expected to be strongest 
where they blow downslope from higher terrain, over headlands, and 
through passes.
 
3. Swell generated by Hone is expected to reach the Hawaiian
islands later tonight, then spread to the remainder of the state 
through the rest of the weekend. These swells will produce 
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 17.4N 150.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 17.7N 152.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 17.9N 154.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 18.3N 157.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 18.7N 159.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  26/1800Z 19.0N 161.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 19.4N 162.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 20.0N 166.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 20.6N 170.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 
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