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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number   9
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
500 AM HST Sat Aug 24 2024
 
Satellite imagery indicates that the appearance of Tropical Storm
Hone remains steady, with minimal changes in track or intensity
over the past 6 h. Deep convection and convective banding continue
to present a well-organized structure. Recent data from a U.S. Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed maximum sustained
flight-level winds of 64 knots, which, after adjustment, reduces to
51 knots at the surface. SFMR winds were recorded at 59 knots.
Considering these observations, the initial intensity will be
maintained at 55 knots. The central pressure remains at 998 mb as
confirmed by dropsonde data.
 
The initial motion is set at 280/13. This general motion, slightly
north of due west, is expected to continue over the next several
days under the influence of a subtropical ridge to the north. Some
slowing of forward motion is anticipated as the ridge weakens
slightly. Hone is expected to pass near or just south of the Big
Island of Hawaii later today through early Sunday, where a Tropical
Storm Warning remains in effect. By the middle of next week, Hone
will likely become increasingly shallow as vertical wind shear
increases, allowing the low-level trade wind flow to steer the
system toward the west-southwest. The official forecast track is
nearly identical to the previous advisory, and closely follows the
tightly clustered consensus guidance.
 
Environmental conditions are expected to remain steady over the next
24 h, with sea surface temperatures between 26C and 27C, light to
moderate vertical wind shear, and marginally sufficient mid-level
moisture. Slow strengthening is expected to continue. Sea surface
temperatures are forecast to rise to around 27C beyond 24 h, and
oceanic heat content will become more favorable. This supports the
potential for Hone to reach hurricane strength from Sunday through
Monday. As Hone continues westward, increasing vertical wind shear
is likely to weaken the system later Monday through the middle of
next week. The intensity forecast is aligned with dynamical
consensus guidance.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. There is the potential for excessive rainfall and flash flooding
on portions of the Big Island of Hawaii starting this afternoon and
continuing through Sunday as a large area of moisture associated
with Hone moves through. The heaviest rainfall will likely occur
over windward and southeast facing slopes.
 
2. Tropical Storm conditions are expected on the Big Island,
beginning as early as this evening and continuing through early
Sunday. Winds are expected to be strongest downslope of higher
terrain, over headlands, and through passes.
 
3. Surf associated with large swells generated by Hone will quickly
build today through Sunday as Hone continues westward. Expect
dangerous conditions with life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 17.5N 151.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 17.8N 153.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 18.1N 156.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 18.5N 158.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 18.9N 160.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 19.2N 162.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 19.5N 164.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 20.2N 167.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 20.8N 170.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs
 
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