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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  10
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 24 2024
 
Cloud tops around Tropical Storm Hone have warmed noticeably 
since the overnight convective bloom, but satellite loop shows 
overall structure remained steady over the past six hours. Movement 
remains steady as well as the intermediate position at 18Z was 
exactly along the overnight forecast track. Latest data from U.S. 
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed maximum 
sustained winds of 51 knots. This is slightly higher than subjective 
Dvorak satellite derived intensities of 45 kt from CPHC and JTWC. 
Direct observations take precedence and the initial intensity for 
Hone will be maintained at 55 kt. A dropsonde measured a central 
pressure of 1000 mb, a slight increase from last night.

The initial motion is set at 280/13, unchanged from the last full 
forecast cycle. Slightly north of due west, this motion is expected 
to continue over the next several days due to the influence of a 
subtropical ridge to the north. Some slowing in forward motion 
is anticipated as the ridge weakens slightly. Hone is expected to 
pass near or just south of the Big Island of Hawaii later today 
through early Sunday, where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in 
effect. By the middle of the coming week, Hone will likely become 
increasingly shallow as vertical wind shear increases, allowing 
low-level trade wind flow to steer the system toward the 
west-southwest. The official forecast track is nearly identical to 
the previous advisory and closely follows the tightly clustered 
consensus guidance.
 
Environmental conditions affecting Hone will remain steady over the 
next 24 hours, with sea surface temperatures between 26C and 27C, 
light to moderate vertical wind shear, and marginally sufficient 
mid-level moisture. Slow strengthening is expected to continue 
through tonight. Sea surface temperatures are forecast to rise to 
around 27C beyond 24 hr. However, guidance presents a rather 
compelling case for capping Hone's intensity at 60 kt Sunday and 
Monday, just below hurricane strength. As Hone continues westward, 
increasing vertical wind shear may weaken it later Monday through 
the middle of next week. The intensity forecast closely follows 
dynamical consensus guidance.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. There is the potential for excessive rainfall and flash flooding
on portions of the Big Island of Hawaii starting this afternoon and
continuing through Sunday as a large area of moisture associated
with Hone moves through. The heaviest rainfall will likely occur
over windward and southeast facing slopes.
 
2. Tropical Storm conditions are expected on the Big Island,
beginning as early as this evening and continuing through early
Sunday. Winds are expected to be strongest downslope of higher
terrain, over headlands, and through passes.
 
3. Swells generated by Hone will impact the Hawaiian islands 
through Sunday, creating life-threatening surf and rip currents. 
Please consult surf products from the National Weather Service in 
Honolulu.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 17.7N 153.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 18.1N 155.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 18.5N 157.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 18.8N 159.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 19.0N 161.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  27/0600Z 19.3N 163.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 19.5N 165.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 20.2N 168.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 21.3N 172.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Powell
 
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