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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  11
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
500 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024
 
After briefly becoming exposed, the low level circulation center of 
Hone has become obscured by deep convection once again late this 
afternoon. Overall organization remains steady, while motion has 
slowed a bit and deviated very slightly right of track over the 
past six hours. Latest data from U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft showed maximum sustained winds of 51 knots, reduced 
from flight level. This is slightly higher than subjective Dvorak 
satellite derived intensities of 45 kt from CPHC and JTWC. 
Reconnaissance values take precedence and the initial intensity for 
Hone will be maintained at 55 kt. Initial pressure will remain 1000 
mb. 

The initial motion is set at 280/12, slightly slower than the 
last two forecast cycles. A bit north of due west, this general 
motion is expected to continue over the next several days under the 
influence of a subtropical ridge to the north. Some forward motion 
slowing is anticipated as the ridge weakens slightly. Hone is 
expected to pass near or just south of the Big Island of Hawaii this 
evening through early Sunday, where a Tropical Storm Warning remains 
in effect. By the middle of the coming week, Hone will likely become 
increasingly shallow as vertical wind shear increases, allowing the 
low-level trade wind flow to steer the system toward the 
west-southwest. The official forecast track is nearly identical to 
the previous advisory, and closely follows the tightly clustered 
consensus guidance.
 
Expect sea surface temperatures between 26C and 27C, light to 
moderate vertical wind shear, and marginally sufficient mid-level 
moisture along Hone's path. Slow strengthening will continue 
into Sunday tonight. While sea surface temperatures are forecast to 
rise to around 27C beyond 24 hours, guidance continues to present a 
rather compelling case for capping Hone intensity at 60 kt Sunday 
and Monday, just below hurricane strength. As Hone continues 
westward, increasing vertical wind shear may weaken it later Monday 
through the middle of next week. The intensity forecast closely 
follows dynamical consensus guidance.
 
KEY MESSAGES: 

1. The potential for excessive rainfall and flash flooding on 
portions of the Big Island of Hawaii persists through Sunday as a 
large area of moisture associated with Hone moves through. The 
heaviest rainfall will likely occur over windward and southeast 
facing slopes.
 
2. Tropical Storm conditions are expected on the Big Island 
beginning this evening and continuing through early Sunday. Winds 
are expected to be strongest downslope of higher terrain, over 
headlands, and through passes.
 
3. Swells generated by Hone will continue through Sunday as this 
system continues westward. Expect dangerous conditions with 
life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 18.0N 154.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 18.4N 156.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 18.8N 158.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 19.0N 160.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 19.2N 162.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  27/1200Z 19.4N 164.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 19.7N 166.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 20.5N 169.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 21.4N 172.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Powell
 
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