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Hurricane Hone Discussion Number  12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024
 
Hone is passing by around 50 nautical miles south of South Point on 
the Big Island of Hawaii this evening, where it is within radar 
range. Combined radar and data from the Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft support raising the intensity to 65 knots, 
making Hone a Category 1 Hurricane. Despite recent subjective Dvorak 
estimates suggesting a slightly lower intensity, the satellite 
presentation has evolved markedly from this afternoon, with cold 
cloud tops near -80 C reinforcing the aircraft-based intensity. 
Additionally, a dropsonde report measured a central pressure of 991 
mb, depicting a significant decrease from this afternoon. The 
initial intensity is raised to 65 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion of Hone is set at 280/10, consistent with the 
previous forecast cycle. This slightly north of due west trajectory 
is expected to persist over the coming days, influenced by the 
subtropical ridge to the north. However, as Hone passes near the Big 
Island overnight into Sunday, the mountainous terrain could 
influence local steering currents, potentially leading to localized 
and short-term deviations in the storm's motion and intensity. A 
gradual slowing in forward speed is anticipated Sunday into Monday 
as the ridge weakens slightly. As we move into the early to mid 
portion of the week, Hone is projected to encounter increasing 
vertical wind shear, which is expected to weaken the storm and make 
it more shallow. This change in conditions will allow the low-level 
trade wind flow to steer the system toward the west-southwest. The 
official forecast track remains nearly identical to the previous 
advisory and is closely aligned with the tightly clustered consensus 
guidance.

Environmental conditions affecting Hone will remain steady over the 
next 24 h, with sea surface temperatures between 26 C and 27 C, 
light to moderate vertical wind shear, and sufficient mid-level 
moisture. This supports maintaining a steady trend through Sunday. 
Although sea surface temperatures are forecast to rise to around 27 
C Sunday night and beyond as Hone continues westward, increasing 
vertical wind shear will gradually weaken the storm Sunday night 
through the middle of next week. The intensity forecast closely 
follows dynamical consensus guidance.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Tropical Storm conditions are expected on the Big Island
beginning through early Sunday. Winds are expected to be strongest 
downslope of higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes.
 
2. Hone is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 6 to 12 
inches over mainly windward and southeast facing slopes of the Big 
Island, with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall totals of 2 
to 4 inches will be possible over portions of the smaller islands, 
mainly windward.
 
3. Swells generated by Hone will continue through Sunday as this
system continues westward. Expect dangerous conditions with
life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 18.2N 155.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 18.6N 157.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 19.0N 159.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 19.2N 161.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 19.3N 163.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  27/1800Z 19.6N 166.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 19.9N 167.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 20.7N 171.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 21.2N 174.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs
 
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