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Hurricane Hone Discussion Number  13
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
500 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024
 
Hone is passing by around 40 nautical miles south of South Point on 
the Big Island of Hawaii this morning, where it is within radar 
range. Combined radar, and data from an Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft mission earlier this morning, support 
raising the initial intensity of Hone to 75 knots, keeping it a 
Category 1 Hurricane. Despite recent subjective Dvorak estimates 
suggesting a slightly lower intensity, the satellite presentation 
has evolved markedly overnight, with cold cloud tops near -75 C 
reinforcing the radar and aircraft-based intensities. The initial 
intensity is raised to 75 kt for this advisory.
 
The initial motion of Hone is set at 280/07. This westward 
trajectory is expected to persist over the coming days, influenced 
by a subtropical ridge to the north. However, as Hone remains near 
the Big Island through the early morning hours today, the 
mountainous terrain could influence local steering currents, 
potentially leading to localized and short-term deviations in the 
storm's motion and intensity. As we move into the early to mid 
portion of the week, Hone is projected to encounter increasing 
vertical wind shear, which is expected to weaken the storm and make 
it more shallow. This change in conditions will allow the low-level 
trade wind flow to steer the system toward the west-southwest. The 
official forecast track remains nearly identical to the previous 
advisory and is closely aligned with the tightly clustered consensus 
guidance.
 
Environmental conditions affecting Hone will remain steady over the 
next 12 to 24 h, with sea surface temperatures between 26 C and 27 
C, light to moderate vertical wind shear, and sufficient mid-level 
moisture. This supports maintaining a steady trend in intensity 
through the morning hours today. Although sea surface temperatures 
are forecast to rise to around 27 C tonight and beyond as Hone 
continues westward, increasing vertical wind shear will translate to 
a gradual weakening trend later today through the middle of the 
week. The intensity forecast closely follows dynamical consensus 
guidance.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Tropical Storm conditions will continue on the Big Island through 
the morning hours. Winds are expected to be strongest downslope of 
higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes.
 
2. Hone is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 6 to 12
inches over mainly windward and southeast facing slopes of the Big
Island, with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall totals of 2
to 4 inches will be possible over portions of the smaller islands,
mainly windward.
 
3. Swells generated by Hone will continue today as this system 
continues westward. Expect dangerous conditions with 
life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 18.3N 156.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 18.6N 157.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 18.9N 160.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 19.0N 162.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 19.1N 164.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  28/0000Z 19.4N 166.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 19.7N 168.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 20.5N 172.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 20.6N 175.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs
 
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