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Hurricane Hone Discussion Number  14
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024
 
Data from a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
confirm what can be deduced from latest satellite images, that Hone 
has weakened since undergoing a period of intensification last 
night. The pressure has been rising slowly over the course of this 
morning's mission, and the highest flight-level winds thus far have 
been 67 kt. The initial intensity estimate for this advisory has 
been lowered, perhaps conservatively, to 70 kt. 

The initial motion estimate is 290/12kt, as Hone's forward speed 
has increased somewhat since the previous advisory. Recent jogs in 
the observed track may have been related to the high terrain of the 
Big Island, but as it continues to move away, Hone's general 
westward motion will be imparted by a low- to mid-level ridge to the 
north. The updated forecast track is close to the previous, after 
accounting for a northwesterly jog as Hone passed south of the Big 
Island, and most closely follows the dynamical consensus models.

Water vapor and infrared satellite images show that Hone lies in 
a col between upper-level ridges centered to the distant east-
northeast and west. This pattern has been providing enhanced 
outflow aloft over the last 12-18 hours, likely aiding in the 
observed intensification to a hurricane. The forecast track will 
take Hone north of the upper-level ridge axis to its west, and into 
an area of increased westerly vertical wind shear, especially after 
Tuesday. Despite steadily increasing SSTs along the forecast 
track, the forecast anticipates that Hone will weaken due 
to the shear. The intensity forecast generally follows the 
trends presented by the intensity consensus, and anticipates that 
Hone will dissipate before exiting the central Pacific basin.
 

KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Tropical Storm conditions will continue on the Big Island
into the early afternoon, with gradually diminishing wind and
rainfall through the evening. Winds will strongest downslope of
higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes.
 
2. Hone will continue to deliver persistent and locally 
widespread rainfall to portions of the Hawaiian islands.
 
3. Swells generated by Hone are affecting portions of the
Hawaiian islands, producing life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 18.8N 157.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 19.1N 159.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 19.3N 161.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 19.3N 163.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 19.5N 165.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  28/0600Z 19.9N 168.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 20.3N 170.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 21.1N 174.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
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